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Economic changes, such as retirement, or the closing of a department, may affect peoples' willingness to speak out. The challenge is to incorporate the approach of this diagram—that is, trying to assess the resultant of everyone's attitudes—into a slogan or phrase or argument which counters the 'Argument from Self-Interest' that unaccepted new ideas must be wrong. Let me give three examples: a phone call to Stratford-upon-Avon's Information Centre disclosed that their most up-to-date report, 1977, on sustainable tourism, said 3.8 million visitors generated £135M revenue for the area (including Warwick Castle, towns and villages—not only the 'Birthplace Trust' and 'Shakespeare' generally).I queried the small-seeming £35 per head but was assured this was correct.I've used 'expert community' to mean those people who have, or think they have, expertise in the subject; everyone else is assumed outside the set outlined in black.The 'costs' and 'gains' sets are supposed to be some sort of objective assessment of pluses and minuses if the new idea becomes accepted.Subscription currently £25 per annum (with various arrangements for groups of people).It would be misleading to present The de Vere Society as a large organisation. 56 are in the US, and a dozen or so in other countries.There is suggestive material on a nova in November, Gilbert and magnetism, and the motion of Mars being not understood, when Kepler in 1909 (their date) provided his explanation.Christopher Dams , is still Hon Secretary of the De Vere Society (England), but the newsletter editor is now Daphne Pearson.

There is more uncertainty with a new idea than an established one.This is a highly simplified diagram of the real world.In practice, the probability of being right has to be taken into account; also the probability that the idea is accepted when proven, which isn't the same thing, since there must be some probability of failing even if right.In comparison with some other frauds, therefore, this is a tiddler.However, from the English perspective it's interesting to consider the political side, worded well by Burford: "Shakespeare has been kept under the equivalent of the Official Secrets Act in this country for four hundred years because he told the true story of Queen Elizabeth and the royal court. The plays of Shakespeare are social and political dynamite.

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